![]() In developing a method for determining uncertainty, it is desired that re-coding of the model not be necessary, implementation be simple, practical computational constraints be considered (e.g., no Monte Carlo approach). The method described can also be extended to the prediction of such values as corrosion rate, arrival temperature, and wax deposition rate. However as multiphase transport in pipelines extends into tens of miles, a significant error can occur in predicting capacity. Over short distances, uncertainties in prediction of pressure drop in the design stage can be large without causing significant production problems. Error bars for flow assurance simulations can greatly affect field planning, equipment sizing, and risk assessment.Īt present, uncertainty calculations for multiphase flow conditions are not well understood and are rarely reported. While there is a push for increasingly more complex flow models it is important not to lose the understanding of the accuracy of such models and their sensitivity to input parameters. Introduction Flow assurance and risk assessment are major issues in the offshore petroleum industry today. The initial results indicate that in addition to uncertainty prediction, the algorithm can also be used to statistically reduce the sharp discontinuities common in multiphase flow modeling, thus leading to improved simulation convergeance. The specific method employed combines the classical uncertainty analysis of Kline and McClintock with multiple random variable probability theory. Applying Eqs.Ībstract An algorithm was developed for determining the implications of multiphase flow uncertainties. uncertainty of the Reynolds number is 100. OTC 13151 AN ALGORITHM FOR DETERMINING THE UNCERTAINTY OF COMPLEX MULTIPHASE FLOW. The uncertainty described to this point only includes The uncertainty of the function is now determined as follows: s a discrete approach (due to practical restrictions). Values for common confidence intervals is given in Table 1. The level of uncertainty associated with the results. Flach, University of DaytonĬopyright 2001, Offshore Technology ConferenceĮrror bars are attached to the data to give the reader an idea of drilling fluid selection and formulation (37)Īn Algorithm for Determining the Uncertainty of Complex Multiphase Flow. ![]() drilling fluid management & disposal (34).Completion Installation and Operations (35).
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